Welcome to Friday News. Every Friday I share news with you; primarily about writing and sometimes about life in general. This week it is about:Candidate Follow Up.
In my book 2020 Election Candidates & Issues I not only listed the candidates and their stands on the issues, I made predictions on their candidacy.
Let’s take a look: (an “X” means correct as of now; ! means wrong)
|Michael Bennet||Drops out after Super Tuesday|
|Joe Biden||Drops out after Super Tuesday||Slipping;||X|
|Bill de Blasio||Drops out before Super Tuesday||Out Sep. 20, 2019||X|
|Cory Booker||Drops out before Super Tuesday|
|Steve Bullock||Drops out before Super Tuesday|
|Pete Buttigieg||Drops out after Super Tuesday||Emerging|
|Julian Castro||Drops out after Super Tuesday|
|Hillary Clinton||Maybe enters race*||Thinking about it||X|
|Hillary Clinton||Drops out after Super Tuesday|
|John Delaney||Drops out before Super Tuesday|
|Tulsi Gabbard||Drops out after Super Tuesday|
|Kirsten Gillibrand||Drops out before Super Tuesday||Out Aug. 28, 2019||X|
|Al Gore||Maybe enters race||X|
|Al Gore||Drops out after Super Tuesday|
|Mike Gravel||Drops out before Super Tuesday||Out Aug. 6, 2019||X|
|Kamala Harris||Winning nomination||Slipping|
|John Hickenlooper||Drops out before Super Tuesday||Out Aug. 19, 2019||X|
|Jay Inslee||Drops out before Super Tuesday||Out Aug. 21, 2019||X|
|Amy Klobuchar||Drops out after Super Tuesday||!|
|Wayne Messam||Drops out before Super Tuesday|
|Seth Moulton||Drops out before Super Tuesday||Out Aug. 2019||X|
|Beto O’Rourke||Drops out after Super Tuesday|
|Tim Ryan||Drops out before/after Super Tuesday||Out Oct. 23, 2019||!|
|Bernie Sanders||Drops out after Super Tuesday||Slipping;||X|
|Tom Stever||Drops out before Super Tuesday|
|Eric Swalwell||Drops out before Super Tuesday||Out July 8, 2019||X|
|Elizabeth Warren||Winning nomination||At top||X|
|Bill Weld||Drops out before Super Tuesday|
|Marianne Williamson||Drops out before/after Super Tuesday|
|Andrew Yang||Might win nomination|
|Donald Trump||Wins nomination & election||Ahead||X|
* My most interesting prediction concerned Hillary Clinton entering the race. While she has not done so, she is increasingly acting like a candidate. In my prediction I gave reasons for ‘not entering’ the race. My opinion hasn’t changed nor am I surprised by her interest (see 2020 Election Candidates & Issues, pg.46).
In the chart above you can see that every dropout was predicted by me. Further, I have consistently placed Warren as a possible winner. I predicted Harris to be a possible winner, but she’s been slipping lately. Too early to tell. Biden is at the top but his percentages keep slipping and I think my prediction about him dropping after Super Tuesday is still valid. Sanders has continued to slip and I still think he drops out after Super Tuesday.
Tim Ryan dropped out just this week. I had predicted him dropping out after Super Tuesday.
Meanwhile, Trump remains solid. Head to head polls mean nothing, but overall job performance is in low 40’s, which is fine this early in the race. It is hard to discern given the overall bias of the media, but as we get closer to the conventions I expect his numbers to rise.
I am pleased that my predictions have been right on course. Time will tell just how accurate I’ve been.
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R Frederick Riddle is the Editor of TR Writing Services providing help to struggling and/or new authors to write and publish their books. In addition, he is the author of several books and is best known for Christian Historical and Speculative Fiction. For more information on him or his books visit his Amazon Authors Page. He is also co-founder and Vice President of T&R Independent Books where his books are featured. To reply to any blog you have the option of commenting on a blog and/or sending an email to firstname.lastname@example.org. You may also be interested in his Facebook page at RFrederickRiddlesWorld.