09 18 2020
Welcome to News which is published every Monday and Friday.
Although my book Trump an Outsider’s View is already available for purchase or Pre-Order (today is last day), I continue to follow the stats. If you read the paper, you might get the picture that things are still bad and getting worse.
But there are still new cases.
True, but the number of true cases is going down. That’s a good thing not a bad thing. But the true story lies in the death rate.
Yes. I published my newest book Trump an Outsider’s View on September 11. The eBook is currently in Pre-Order and will be released tomorrow. In both versions I had the following stats:
Total cases: 6,438,739
Total deaths: 192,834
Death Rate: 2.99%
Compare those numbers to today’s (September 18, 2020):
Total cases: 6,670,496
Total deaths: 197,447
Death Rate: 2.96%
How do you determine Death Rate?
You divide the total deaths by the total cases. This gives you a running average. When viewed over a long period of time (say January to September 18) it mitigates the delay factor people talk about.
A Closer Look
When you run the numbers, you find that during that seven-day period new cases went up by a total of 231,757 and new deaths went up by 4,613. Convert that to daily, and you get an average of 33,108 new cases and 659 new deaths.
That is considerably below the numbers for the height of the pandemic.
What does that mean?
It means the pandemic is slowing down. Now that the cases are also on a downtrend, the Death Rate is no longer plunging as it was from June 1 through September 11, but it still is moving downward.
But the News Media has changed its focus.
Now the focus is on the economic damage done by the virus. But as with the death rate the media is behind on the economy. Although they state that Americans applying for jobless benefits fell last week to 860,000, the emphasis is on the historic highs that number represents.
Again, they report that jobless claims fell by 33,000 but the article emphasizes the high numbers in relation to last year. In other words, they can say they reported positive news which is true. But they wrapped it in negative news. The truth is that the economy is slowly (that is, slower than we want) ramping up.
Employment is rising and unemployment is sinking. And that is far more important news than the fact we have hit record breaking levels. Yes, we did but that primarily took place in months past. We are now seeing the American economy on an upward climb. It is slower than we want but there is no reason to believe it won’t speed up.
Speaking for myself, I expect the economy to be stronger by election day than it has been for a while now. I also expect the new cases and new deaths to be lower perhaps in the 1% Death Rate. That doesn’t change the tragedy of even one death, nor does it excuse the Democrats for first denying the Pandemic (and accusing Trump of racism) in the beginning nor their use of the pandemic to further political aims.
We will still see Democratic opportunism and negativism, but I am glad we have a President who is optimistic about America and its future.
The clouds of the pandemic are dispersing, and the sunlight is shining through. It is time to smile again!
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R Frederick Riddle is the Editor of TR Writing Services providing help to struggling and/or new authors to write and publish their books. He is also an author of Historical, Speculative, and Mystery fiction, plus co-founder and Vice President of T&R Independent Books. To reply to any blog you can comment on a blog and/or send an email to email@example.com. His Facebook page is at RFrederickRiddlesWorld. #Writingservices