News Covid-19

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09 18 2020

Welcome to News which is published every Monday and Friday.

Although my book Trump an Outsider’s View is already available for purchase or Pre-Order (today is last day), I continue to follow the stats. If you read the paper, you might get the picture that things are still bad and getting worse.

Not So!

But there are still new cases.

True, but the number of true cases is going down. That’s a good thing not a bad thing. But the true story lies in the death rate.

Death Rate?

Yes. I published my newest book Trump an Outsider’s View on September 11. The eBook is currently in Pre-Order and will be released tomorrow. In both versions I had the following stats:

Total cases: 6,438,739

Total deaths: 192,834

Death Rate: 2.99%

Compare those numbers to today’s (September 18, 2020):

Total cases: 6,670,496

Total deaths: 197,447

Death Rate: 2.96%

How do you determine Death Rate?

You divide the total deaths by the total cases. This gives you a running average. When viewed over a long period of time (say January to September 18) it mitigates the delay factor people talk about.

A Closer Look

When you run the numbers, you find that during that seven-day period new cases went up by a total of 231,757 and new deaths went up by 4,613. Convert that to daily, and you get an average of 33,108 new cases and 659 new deaths.

That is considerably below the numbers for the height of the pandemic.

What does that mean?

It means the pandemic is slowing down. Now that the cases are also on a downtrend, the Death Rate is no longer plunging as it was from June 1 through September 11, but it still is moving downward.

But the News Media has changed its focus.

Now the focus is on the economic damage done by the virus. But as with the death rate the media is behind on the economy. Although they state that Americans applying for jobless benefits fell last week to 860,000, the emphasis is on the historic highs that number represents.

Again, they report that jobless claims fell by 33,000 but the article emphasizes the high numbers in relation to last year. In other words, they can say they reported positive news which is true. But they wrapped it in negative news. The truth is that the economy is slowly (that is, slower than we want) ramping up.

Employment is rising and unemployment is sinking. And that is far more important news than the fact we have hit record breaking levels. Yes, we did but that primarily took place in months past. We are now seeing the American economy on an upward climb. It is slower than we want but there is no reason to believe it won’t speed up.

Speaking for myself, I expect the economy to be stronger by election day than it has been for a while now. I also expect the new cases and new deaths to be lower perhaps in the 1% Death Rate. That doesn’t change the tragedy of even one death, nor does it excuse the Democrats for first denying the Pandemic (and accusing Trump of racism) in the beginning nor their use of the pandemic to further political aims.

We will still see Democratic opportunism and negativism, but I am glad we have a President who is optimistic about America and its future.

The clouds of the pandemic are dispersing, and the sunlight is shining through. It is time to smile again!

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 – – – – – – –

R Frederick Riddle is the Editor of TR Writing Services providing help to struggling and/or new authors to write and publish their books. He is also an author of Historical, Speculative, and Mystery fiction, plus co-founder and Vice President of T&R Independent Books. To reply to any blog you can comment on a blog and/or send an email to marketing@tr-indbkstore.com. His Facebook page is at RFrederickRiddlesWorld. #Writingservices

Ron’s Lit Tip 09 01 20

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Today’s Issue: Revelations from new book

Welcome to Ron’s Lit Tip. Every Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday I will share a tip with you.

Normally I give you a tip about writing. But today I’m taking a slightly different tack.

The time is coming when my new book Trump An Outsider’s View will be available for purchase. I thought that today I would share some facts from the book that you may not know. Since we are still in the Covid-19 Pandemic I’ve selected certain entries to display. They will be highlighted in bold.

Fact #1. Did Trump call Coronavirus a Fraud?

Actually, this is not in the book, but I thought I would include it here. This is the famous tweet that got the liberals so upset. The tweet occurred on February 28, 2020 at a Trump rally in South Carolina.

The Democrats and other liberals have since said that he said, ‘The coronavirus, this is their new hoax’. It is true he said in his tweet, ‘the coronavirus’, it is also true he said, ‘this is their new hoax’. But he did not say, ‘The coronavirus, this is their new hoax’.

These were two different statements within the tweet and the content was different in the tweet.

Fact #2. Did Trump not take the virus seriously?

In my book I color coded the Trump Administration’s response.

When you go through the Covid-19 Timeline, which began in November 2019, you will find the administration began its response on January 3, 2020. See the excerpt below:

The United States HHS Secretary Alex Azar was alerted on January 3 that CDC director Robert Redfield sent an email to the director of the Chinese CDC, George Gao, formally offering to send U.S. experts to China to investigate the coronavirus.

On the same day, the Trump Administration began initiating restrictions regarding China. Here it is:

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) issued a level I travel notice for Wuhan, China due to the spreading coronavirus.

Whatever President Trump said or tweeted, his Administration acted promptly. But in this politically charged year, that was conveniently forgotten.

Fact #3. What was the death rate at the end of August and what does it mean?

The death rate for the year-to-date as of 8pm August 31st is 3.05%.

There are numerous charts out there and differing people or organizations providing the numbers. I chose to use the Florida Department of Health daily numbers reported in the newspaper. I also used W.H.O. numbers for daily year-to-date reporting. The highwater mark for the virus was at the end of May when 5.8% of cases were deaths. The actual statement appears at the end of May and I am showing it below.

At this time, the total cases were 1,776,785 and total deaths were 103,781 for a death rate of 5.8%.

The final count for this book was 6,028,012 cases and 183,563 deaths for a death rate of 3.05%.

I was inspired to write my book by observing the events and discovering that the news media wasn’t being entirely honest. So, I started researching and following the stories within. The result is a book told from my perspective and based on facts not fear. You never know what you will discover when you start digging.

Lit Tip: Events happening around you are excellent sources for stories.

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For information about us (“we edit, proof, and publish the book within you”)  contact us at marketing@tr-indbkstore.com and get our Free Brochure which tells you about our services.

AUTHOR’S PAGE: amazon.com/author/rfrederickriddle.

ARE YOU A BOOK REVIEWER? Want to review our books? Contact me at marketing@tr-indbkstore.com with the subject line indicating that desire. Such as, ‘Seek to review [book Title].’ Be sure to indicate your email address and your name.

 – – – – – – –

R Frederick Riddle is the Editor of TR Writing Services providing help to struggling and/or new authors to write and publish their books. He is also an author of Historical, Speculative, and Mystery fiction, plus co-founder and Vice President of T&R Independent Books. To reply to any blog you can comment on a blog and/or send an email to marketing@tr-indbkstore.com. His Facebook page is at RFrederickRiddlesWorld. #Writingservices

Friday News & Comments 08 28 20

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Today’s Issue: Coverage of RNC

Welcome to Friday News & Comments.

Well, the Republican Convention is over, and the President has been re-nominated. I have no problem with the convention itself. But the coverage was poor. Now understand we watched the convention on broadcast television. We chose not to have cable TV so we pay the price.

We don’t get a good signal from PBS which carried more of the convention than other stations, so we watched it on CBS and NBC. At least CBS had Reince Priebus on its panel. As far as I could tell he was the only one with a conservative agenda, everyone else was liberal. NBC’s Chuck Todd was terrible as he, in my opinion, always reached for words or phrases that were negative or dismissive.

But, as expected, the network panelists on both stations were too busy telling us what they thought the issues are and how we should understand them. Reminds me of another TV reporter who not too long ago said it was their job to tell us what to think. No, It Is Not!

There job is to report the facts minus any personal bias. I know bias will always be there, but they should at least try.

Another situation that bugged me was that they talked too much. Instead of letting us hear what the Republicans were saying, they either never let us hear them (except for main speakers) or they interrupted the feed and began their interpretation. First ran into this on CBS. We turned to NBC and found them to be as bad or worse.

I didn’t watch the Democratic Convention, but I imagine it was the same although probably friendlier to the Democrats.

As for the conventions themselves I saw enough of both to color the DNC as dark and the RNC as light, or put another way, the DNC was pessimistic and the RNC was optimistic. Optimism is always better than pessimism, especially if the optimism is founded on facts which was true in this case. Covid-19 cases since May 31 grew by 352,587 (June), 1,926,860 (July), and 105,237 as of August 28, 2020. That indicates that August cases may have turned south. And we already know that the death rate (also known as case fatality rate and found by dividing deaths by cases) has plunged from 5.8% on May 31st to 3.09% on August 28th. Those are facts and they are positive!

While the death rate is not perfect it does give us a clearer picture, especially when over a long period of time. The above timeline covers June, July, and almost all of August for almost 13 weeks! That at least answers the problem of the delay of deaths. Instead of going higher they have continued downward.

With the trend southward of the cases I imagine we will see a bottoming out of the death rate and maybe a slight increase as the two totals draw closer. That is really positive news!

There is more reason to be optimistic than there is to be pessimistic.

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For information about us (“we edit, proof, and publish the book within you”)  contact us at marketing@tr-indbkstore.com and get our Free Brochure which tells you about our services.

AUTHOR’S PAGE: amazon.com/author/rfrederickriddle.

ARE YOU A BOOK REVIEWER? Want to review our books? Contact me at marketing@tr-indbkstore.com with the subject line indicating that desire. Such as, ‘Seek to review [book Title].’ Be sure to indicate your email address and your name.

 – – – – – – –

R Frederick Riddle, Editor of TR Writing Services, provides help struggling and/or new authors to write and publish their books. He also authors Historical, Speculative, and Mystery fiction, plus he is co-founder and Vice President of T&R Independent Books. To reply to any blog you can comment on a blog and/or send an email to marketing@tr-indbkstore.com. His Facebook page is at RFrederickRiddlesWorld.

Monday News & Comments 08 24 20

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Today’s Issue: Epicenter of Covid-19

Welcome to Monday News & Comments.

This morning I read an article that was critical of the way Florida has been handling Covid-19. To read that article you would think that Florida is the Epicenter of Covid-19 in the United States. That is not true!

What is true is that Florida cases peaked higher than New York, but the real story is in the deaths. In New York you saw body bags being stacked and stored, but in Florida there’s been nothing like that.

In SE Florida you have what we call the epicenter for Florida. It includes Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach. That area leads the nation in cases per capita. Another area is the Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater area. And as mentioned above Florida surpassed New York in cases per capita. This has caused experts to label Florida the new epicenter of Covid-19. But let’s take a deeper look.

Florida has had 600,571 cases and 10,462 deaths for a Death Rate of 1.74%.

New York has had 460,460 cases and 32,967 deaths for a Death Rate of 7.16%.

Again, experts keep warning us that the numbers of deaths lag the case rise. Let’s assume they are correct, after all they are the experts. But New York’s numbers of deaths to cases has been extremely high from the beginning! Remember the body bags? They were hit early and hard.

In Florida’s situation the case load has been high for awhile now. There is no doubt the case load is much higher than New York’s, but it has not been nearly as deadly. When you compare the two states by death count you discover that Florida is less than 1/3 New York’s death count (10,462 / 32,967 = 31.7%) yet Florida’s cases are much higher (600,571-460,460 = 140,111 or 30.4% higher).

I contend that while cases per capita may be helpful to the experts, it is misleading to us average folks. It creates panic. It should raise concern because even 1 death is tragic, but the truth is that Florida is considerably safer than New York. You might get sicker down here, but your chances of survival are higher.

This throwing numbers around belongs in the lab not the newspaper or local news. It creates unnecessary panic. Getting sick (and they say for young adults it’s equivalent to a bad case of flu) is not to be feared. No one wants to get sick which is a good argument for wearing masks and practicing social distancing. But the death rate is encouraging news, especially since the time span now covers almost eight months!

But broadcasting these numbers on national TV is almost criminal. It creates a problem that is bigger than the facts, creates panic, keeps businesses shut down, and makes it hard for people to return to a more normal life.

We need more responsible reporting and less finger pointing.  

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For information about us (“we edit, proof, and publish the book within you”)  contact us at marketing@tr-indbkstore.com and get our Free Brochure which tells you about our services.

AUTHOR’S PAGE: amazon.com/author/rfrederickriddle.

ARE YOU A BOOK REVIEWER? Want to review our books? Contact me at marketing@tr-indbkstore.com with the subject line indicating that desire. Such as, ‘Seek to review [book Title].’ Be sure to indicate your email address and your name.

 – – – – – – –

R Frederick Riddle, Editor of TR Writing Services, provides help struggling and/or new authors to write and publish their books. He also authors Historical, Speculative, and Mystery fiction, plus he is co-founder and Vice President of T&R Independent Books. To reply to any blog you can comment on a blog and/or send an email to marketing@tr-indbkstore.com. His Facebook page is at RFrederickRiddlesWorld.

Friday News & Commentary 08 07 20

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Today’s Issue: Biden & Trump

Welcome to Friday News. On Tuesdays, Wednesdays, and Thursdays I share tips while on Friday and Monday I report the news.

Biden vs. Trump Polling

We’re approaching the Democratic Convention and, as might be predicted, the media has Biden well ahead of President Trump in the polls. Are they right?

Good question. I’m not a fan of polls, but I do watch them. In my opinion the Rasmussen poll is the most accurate because it is the only poll that is based on Likely registered voters.

In it, Biden leads by single digits with a +/- 5%, essentially a tie. But it is way too early in the campaign. We will have a clearer picture after the conventions.

Why is Biden hiding in his basement?

It’s his strategy. And to some extent it is working at least as far as fundraising is concerned. But there is an old saying that ‘you can’t hide forever’. When the convention takes place, he is going to be saddled with an extreme left agenda which he will have to come out and explain.

He can’t expect his Vice-Presidential candidate to hold the water. He will have to speak up. That is problematic.

Is Trump in Trouble?

The media says yes, but a more realistic answer is probably no. With over 90% approval from Republicans and his poll numbers in other areas surging, he seems to be in a strong position. The worst of the virus and the riots seem to be past. The truth regarding the Trump Administration regarding Covid-19 or anything else lags behind the lies and innuendoes, but it will come out.

My own forthcoming book due out late August or early September details much of his administration’s history regarding Covid-19 and it is different from the news media’s view. I include daily reports, a monthly chart on death rate, and a comparison between the U.S. and World death rates.

Note: Death Rates are generally not reported by the media; they report deaths. But the death rate is the most important data.

Get free Guide to Writing at marketing@tr-indbkstore.com.

For information about us (“we edit, proof, and publish the book within you”)  contact us at marketing@tr-indbkstore.com and get our Free Brochure which tells you about our services.

AUTHOR’S PAGE: amazon.com/author/rfrederickriddle.

ARE YOU A BOOK REVIEWER? Want to review our books? Contact me at marketing@tr-indbkstore.com with the subject line indicating that desire. Such as, ‘Seek to review [book Title].’ Be sure to indicate your email address and your name.

 – – – – – – –

R Frederick Riddle, Editor of TR Writing Services, provides help struggling and/or new authors to write and publish their books. He also authors Historical, Speculative, and Mystery fiction, plus he is co-founder and Vice President of T&R Independent Books. To reply to any blog you can comment on a blog and/or send an email to marketing@tr-indbkstore.com. His Facebook page is at RFrederickRiddlesWorld.

Ron’s Tip of the Day Covid-19 Death Rate

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Welcome to Ron’s Tip of the Day. Throughout the week I will share a tip with you. Today is Friday News Day and I am looking at Covid-19 Death Rate.

Surging numbers, Record high deaths, Alarming rise in deaths

Do these statements sound familiar to you? They should. You read and hear about them daily in your newspapers and television. It is in essence classic misinformation.

Aren’t the Numbers Accurate?

Yes. But when you state the number 140,000 deaths that sounds like an awful lot. It brings pictures of body bags to mind. But is that a fair and accurate presentation?

The Picture Presented does not Agree with the Facts

The truth is that the death of one person for any reason is a tragedy. But we need more truth in reporting.

During the same time period (over 8 weeks) that deaths have been described as surging the death rate has been plunging. That’s right, plunging!

At the end of May the U.S. death rate stood at 5.8%, its highest point for the year. But as of July 31, the death rate had plunged to a low 3.4%.

But the Death Rate lags the Rise in Cases

That is true. But we are talking over 8 weeks! Originally you heard talk about 2 weeks delay, then 4 weeks, and now even higher. Every day we hear about new highs in deaths and yet a lower death rate. So far, the death rate has not leveled off but is still plunging. There is no evidence that it will go up. Yet the media is in panic mode.

What Does That Mean?

It means that the focus on the number of cases and deaths is misleading. When dealing with large numbers you need to keep things in perspective. Thus, the need to take a serious look at the death rate. We need to mourn the loss of life but operate using common sense.

Tip of the Day: It is time for common sense.

Get free Guide to Writing at marketing@tr-indbkstore.com.

For information about us (“we edit, proof, and publish the book within you”)  contact us at marketing@tr-indbkstore.com and get our Free Brochure which tells you about our services.

AUTHOR’S PAGE: amazon.com/author/rfrederickriddle.

ARE YOU A BOOK REVIEWER? Want to review our books? Contact me at marketing@tr-indbkstore.com with the subject line indicating that desire. Such as, ‘Seek to review [book Title].’ Be sure to indicate your email address and your name.

 – – – – – – –

R Frederick Riddle is the Editor of TR Writing Services providing help to struggling and/or new authors to write and publish their books. He is also an author of Historical, Speculative, and Mystery fiction, plus co-founder and Vice President of T&R Independent Books. To reply to any blog you can comment on a blog and/or send an email to marketing@tr-indbkstore.com. His Facebook page is at RFrederickRiddlesWorld.