The Virus is Losing

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The Riddle Report 11 16 2020

Reports have been coming for several weeks about a resurgence of the virus. You hear talk of record-breaking cases, overflowing hospitals, and rising deaths. I don’t want to negate all this news and call it false. I am sure the numbers are correct.

In fact, I know that some communities, such as Findlay, Ohio are getting hit really hard by the virus. But here is a fact you need to know: The death rate after weeks of surging cases has sunk to new lows. After hitting a high of 5.8% at the end of May 2020 it has now sunk to 2.23%.

What Does That Mean?

Please remember that I am not a doctor, but I can read, and I can understand numbers. The rise in cases is a concern, but the real question is should we panic?

Rise in Cases

To listen to the media, we should be panicking. But when you hear about the geography of the virus and the social groups hit by the virus this rise appears to be spotty. To put another way the hotspots are scattered. I mentioned Findlay Ohio above. That appears to be a definite hotspot and in fact the state of Ohio seems to have numerous hotspots. And there are other states experiencing rises in case count.

So, this is serious and should not be taken likely.

At the same time, it is not a time to panic. I will get into that more later, but we have learned how to handle the virus and a vaccine is coming. We have much to be thankful for.

Hospitalizations.

News reports tell us that some hospitals are experiencing high numbers of Covid-19 patients and diminishing supplies. But those should be short-term issues. The nation is no longer short on the needed supplies for testing and for hospitals.

Deaths

When the news media reports something like 5,000 cases and 54 deaths, it all seems high. But simple math tells a different story.  These numbers turn out to be a 1.08% death rate. Don’t get me wrong, any death is bad. But a death rate of 1.08% in an environment of surging cases is great news.

Before you say, “Yeah, but deaths lag cases” just remember that this rise in cases has been rising for several weeks. Also, throughout the period from June 1st to the middle of September, the cases were rising and the death rate plunging.

If you compare deaths to the United States population (2019) you get .00076219512 or a death rate of 0.076% or 0.08%. That is less than one percent and less than one hundredth percent.

The facts are encouraging!

Vaccine

The much-maligned Operation Warp Speed of President Trump has been and still is working. Based on its history and goals, I think it is logical to anticipate the vaccine going out to first responders this year.

Conclusion

We have good reason to not panic and instead to be encouraged concerning the virus. As stated in the headline, the virus is losing. And that is a good thing!

Now, if only we can settle the issue of who won the election, former Vice President Joe Biden or President Trump. Once they have determined what are legal ballots and illegal ballots and finish the recount, I anticipate that President Trump will be re-elected. It may take court cases to finally resolve the issue, so we have to be patient and, better yet, pray.

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R Frederick Riddle is the Editor of TR Writing Services providing help to struggling and/or new authors to write and publish their books. He is also an author of Historical, Speculative, and Mystery fiction, plus co-founder and Vice President of T&R Independent Books. To reply to any blog you can comment on a blog and/or send an email to marketing@tr-indbkstore.com. His Facebook page is at RFrederickRiddlesWorld.