The Virus is Losing

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The Riddle Report 11 16 2020

Reports have been coming for several weeks about a resurgence of the virus. You hear talk of record-breaking cases, overflowing hospitals, and rising deaths. I don’t want to negate all this news and call it false. I am sure the numbers are correct.

In fact, I know that some communities, such as Findlay, Ohio are getting hit really hard by the virus. But here is a fact you need to know: The death rate after weeks of surging cases has sunk to new lows. After hitting a high of 5.8% at the end of May 2020 it has now sunk to 2.23%.

What Does That Mean?

Please remember that I am not a doctor, but I can read, and I can understand numbers. The rise in cases is a concern, but the real question is should we panic?

Rise in Cases

To listen to the media, we should be panicking. But when you hear about the geography of the virus and the social groups hit by the virus this rise appears to be spotty. To put another way the hotspots are scattered. I mentioned Findlay Ohio above. That appears to be a definite hotspot and in fact the state of Ohio seems to have numerous hotspots. And there are other states experiencing rises in case count.

So, this is serious and should not be taken likely.

At the same time, it is not a time to panic. I will get into that more later, but we have learned how to handle the virus and a vaccine is coming. We have much to be thankful for.

Hospitalizations.

News reports tell us that some hospitals are experiencing high numbers of Covid-19 patients and diminishing supplies. But those should be short-term issues. The nation is no longer short on the needed supplies for testing and for hospitals.

Deaths

When the news media reports something like 5,000 cases and 54 deaths, it all seems high. But simple math tells a different story.  These numbers turn out to be a 1.08% death rate. Don’t get me wrong, any death is bad. But a death rate of 1.08% in an environment of surging cases is great news.

Before you say, “Yeah, but deaths lag cases” just remember that this rise in cases has been rising for several weeks. Also, throughout the period from June 1st to the middle of September, the cases were rising and the death rate plunging.

If you compare deaths to the United States population (2019) you get .00076219512 or a death rate of 0.076% or 0.08%. That is less than one percent and less than one hundredth percent.

The facts are encouraging!

Vaccine

The much-maligned Operation Warp Speed of President Trump has been and still is working. Based on its history and goals, I think it is logical to anticipate the vaccine going out to first responders this year.

Conclusion

We have good reason to not panic and instead to be encouraged concerning the virus. As stated in the headline, the virus is losing. And that is a good thing!

Now, if only we can settle the issue of who won the election, former Vice President Joe Biden or President Trump. Once they have determined what are legal ballots and illegal ballots and finish the recount, I anticipate that President Trump will be re-elected. It may take court cases to finally resolve the issue, so we have to be patient and, better yet, pray.

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R Frederick Riddle is the Editor of TR Writing Services providing help to struggling and/or new authors to write and publish their books. He is also an author of Historical, Speculative, and Mystery fiction, plus co-founder and Vice President of T&R Independent Books. To reply to any blog you can comment on a blog and/or send an email to marketing@tr-indbkstore.com. His Facebook page is at RFrederickRiddlesWorld.

Riddle News: The Problem With Science

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11 12 2020

Welcome to Riddle News.

Joe Biden has said that if he is elected, he will on the first day of his Presidency follow science and shutdown the economy; completely. Dr. Michael Osterholm, an advisor to Biden, says that a total shutdown of four to six weeks would bring the cases down to manageable levels. In the same breath he says that the government could borrow the money to pay for lost wages for individuals, for losses to small companies, to medium-sized companies, or city, state, or county governments.

Let’s forget for the moment that the death rate is still down around 2.30%. Let’s also forget that this is happening although the latest surge has been longer than a couple of weeks. In addition, let’s forget that the economy while still down is recovering and unemployment rate is down. Then there is the fact that a vaccine is already in the approval process and probably will be available for First Responders this year and the general public possibly before Biden takes office (if elected).

Let’s forget all that and focus on the merits or lack thereof of Dr. Osterholm’s theory.

Shutting Down Businesses

Shutting down businesses and paying people for lost wages for four to six weeks could help keep the coronavirus pandemic in check and get the economy on track until a vaccine is approved and distributed.

All of this is based on his understanding of science.

The problem with Science

The problem with elevating science to the dominating position that many people, including Biden/Harris, have done is that science is not absolute. It is constantly changing. Usually that change is for the better and we have a better life than our parents and grandparents because of science. But science is sometimes wrong.

History is covered with scientific wrong thinking:

George Washington, after retiring from the Presidency, got sick. The science of the day preached bloodletting. That is the practice of surgically removing blood from the patient because they thought that would heal him. But instead it weakened him, and he died.

They followed science, but science was wrong.

Abortion. There was a time when science said that life doesn’t begin until after a baby is born. Thus, it was alright to abort. And now we have an abortion industry and politicians who want to expand it. But science was wrong. Today science believes that life begins at fertilization. (There are arguments about when this takes place, but they generally agree that human life begins at or shortly after fertilization.)

Unfortunately, abortionists still operate on the notion that life doesn’t begin until ‘birth’. This old science was wrong.

Covid-19. Dr. Fauci, Director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, has been shifting his stance ever since the virus came to America. But we shouldn’t blame him, blame science. In the first quarter of 2020 science pointed to a quick solution and recovery and he followed science and passed his views to President Trump. But the science was wrong.

Now science says that a vaccine is imminent. It is already being tested and distribution is being set up. There are other vaccines also nearing availability. Where once science said vaccines were up to 2 years away, now it is only weeks and months away.

The truth is that science has been changing. As new studies occur, and the results are learned science has had to adjust. What they thought they knew in January and what they think they know now are worlds apart.

But while science has adjusted, the liberal media and liberals in general stuck with the worst-case scenario that they created. Thus, the criticism of the Trump Administration.

Trump Administration. At this time, we don’t know who won the election (all media claims aside), but we do know that the administration followed science, at least at first. Advised by Dr. Fauci and others, the administration banned flights to and from China, then later from Europe and Britain. Here the science appears to have been correct as far as hindering the spread of the virus.

But it soon became apparent that science was having to adjust to the changing profile of the virus. Suddenly science had to develop new tools and strategies. And both were untested. The Trump Administration was faced with fully trusting theories put forth as facts or charting a course that incorporated the theories mixed with commonsense solutions.

I believe the Administration took the correct route and pulled back from full belief in science. Working with governors to shut down the nation saved approximately 2 million lives and reopening the nation saved our economy. The President was constantly juggling decisions based on input from both the changing medical science and from the changing business climate. These were difficult decisions, but the choices worked.

Has Trump’s Handling of Virus Been Good?

Yes, definitely! Although cases are still happening and people are still dying, the death rate has plunged and is still down. Plus, the economy is picking up and promises to be stronger in the fourth quarter and in January (although there are naysayers). Operation Warp Speed has brought hope to millions of people with the announcements regarding potential vaccines.

Assuming President Trump is re-elected (an increasing probability) then we can expect the virus to be brought under control, vaccine distribution to the general public, and a rebounding economy. It is not so rosy if Joe Biden or as I say Biden/Harris is elected. Shutting down the economy a second time would be devastating.

Especially since they are talking total shutdown. Talking about borrowing money to take care of lost wages and revenue ignores the fact that the House of Representatives has an agenda to help out Democratic states that were already in financial trouble prior to Covid-19. Our economy would be crippled trying to take care of them plus take care of Covid-19 issues. Businesses would close, some permanently, and people would go back to unemployment status. And does Dr. Osterholm really believe that the turnaround would only take 4 to 6 weeks?

I think somebody’s science is wrong.

If Trump Wins Then What?

As mentioned earlier there is at least one vaccine on warp speed. Already the National Guards throughout the nation are being prepared to distribute the vaccine first to First Responders and then to the public. By January 20th, the virus may be under control and our economy revving up.

We have had the right man at the helm during this crisis. I am praying that the recounts and court cases will give us 4 more years of Donald Trump.

As for science, it should never be considered the absolute authority. It is an important resource, but we need men and women who can lead even if it means turning aside from science.

Get free Guide to Writing at marketing@tr-indbkstore.com.

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For information about us (“we edit, proof, and publish the book within you”)  contact us at marketing@tr-indbkstore.com and get our Free Brochure which tells you about our services.

AUTHOR’S PAGE: amazon.com/author/rfrederickriddle.

ARE YOU A BOOK REVIEWER? Want to review our books? Contact me at marketing@tr-indbkstore.com with the subject line indicating that desire. Such as, ‘Seek to review [book Title].’ Be sure to indicate your email address and your name.

 – – – – – – –

R Frederick Riddle is the Editor of TR Writing Services providing help to struggling and/or new authors to write and publish their books. He is also an author of Historical, Speculative, and Mystery fiction, plus co-founder and Vice President of T&R Independent Books. To reply to any blog you can comment on a blog and/or send an email to marketing@tr-indbkstore.com. His Facebook page is at RFrederickRiddlesWorld.